Brazil should trail other paths to preserve its credibility

Marcelo Leite, an analyst at Folha de São Paulo, writes that Brazil should trail other paths, different from those already announced, if the country expects to preserve some credibility at the tables of negotiation. For example, it might be more productive to raise the reduction target percentage to avoid weakening the commitments made in tons of carbon.

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From a more technical perspective, abandoning the 2005 baseline would be far better, as it was overtaken by real world deforestation. After a plunge in deforestation through  2012, the destruction of the Amazon stepped back up to an annual level of 10 thousand square kilometers since Bolsonaro took office. According to Leite, “the correct [thing to do], if there was a real intention in stopping the heating of the atmosphere at 1.5°C, would be to take the trajectory of the last decades, fix an ambitious target for the next ten years, aligned with the Paris Agreement and plan a detailed roadmap of how to achieve it”. But, as he points out, nothing of the sort was done.

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